2009 NFL Pre Season Picks

Lol has it really been 9 months since I touched this thing?  I almost forget how to write one of these entries.  Whats great is its really been since i was 17 that I consistently updated this thing.   But its onto the point, we all know why Im here.    To make my yearly NFL predictions that no one will read, for that slim chance that im exactly write and can brag to everyone about it afterwards!    So without further waiting...

2009 NFL Predictions

AFC

AFC East

1. New England

2. NY Jets

3. Miami

4. Buffallo

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh

2. Baltimore

3. Cleveland

4. Cincinnati

AFC South

1. Indianapolis

2. Tennessee

3. Houston

4. Jacksonville

AFC West

1. San Diego

2. Denver

3. Kansas City

4. Oakland

NFC

NFC East

1. N.Y. Giants

2. Philadelphia

3. Dallas

4. Washington

NFC North

1. Chicago

2. Green Bay

3. Minneosota

4. Detroit

NFC South

1. Atlanta

2. Carolina

3. New Orleans

4. Tampa Bay

NFC West

1. Arizona

2. Seattle

3. San Francisco

4. St. Louis

AFC Playoff Teams

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

3. Indianapolis

4. San Diego

5. Baltimore

6. Tennessee

NFC Playoff Teams

1. NY Giants

2. Chicago

3. Atlanta

4. Arizona

5. Philadelphia

6. Green Bay

Wild Card Round

Indianapolis d Tennessee

Baltimore d San Diego

Green Bay d Atlanta

Philadelphia d Arizona

Divisional Round

New England d Baltimore

Pittsburgh d Indianapolis

NY Giants d Green Bay

Chicago d Philadelphia

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh d New England!

NY Giants d Chicago

Super Bowl 44

Pittsburgh d NY Giants

I did not take nearly as long this year to make my picks as I do in most years.  And I have much less description and reasoning that normal.

But, Im going to give this whole optimistic thing a shot!

Cya in the playoffs!!!!

Lost is the greatest show ever.........ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Conference Round Picks

You know normally id be half pissed that after two weeks of the NFL Playoffs I stand at 3-5 against the spread, and even at picking outright winners.  I mean I spend the off season reading season preview magazines, making my fantasy football spreadsheets, and then during the season I am watching, listening, and reading religiously about all the teams.  But none the less I have to nominate this as the most unpredictable NFL playoffs that I can recall, and it seems like no one is picking games right.  Atleast with the Ravens, and Eagles you could kind of see that comming.  I mean those are really good teams.  But the Arizona Cardinals?????  The team that I just said two weeks ago was the worst team to make the playoffs beating my Super Bowl Champ pick by 20 points in their house?  It was officially the most shocking game of NFL Football I HAVE EVER WATCHED!!!!  NO ONE SAW THAT COMMING!

Now from a personal standpoint, being at the Steelers/Chargers game in the 2nd row last week was just awesome.  Meeting Franco Harris before hand, getting a great view of the game, yelling my ass off, having a ton of fun, and getting a great performance from my Steelers has me very excited.  Infact looking at it the Steelers have to be your clear Super Bowl favorite right now, right?  Well the first problem with that is that nothing has gone according to plan during these playoffs or the whole season.  And the second problem is those damnnnnnnneeeeddddd Philadelphia Eagles just keep hanging out, lurking, ready to just crush my dreams.  I have picked the Eagles to win it all before mainly out of fear that they would, and the year I give them no chance may just be their best chance ever.  Things have just set up so perfectly for them. 

I have always known my role as a diehard Steelers fan.  Im the pessimistic one.  I learned my lesson quickly when I was super cocky before the 2001 playoffs, telling everyone in site the Steelers would dominate on their way to a super bowl win, only to have my dreams crushed by the Patriots for the first time in a shocking upset, to never do it again.  (THAT WAS NOT A RUN ON SENTENCE AT ALL, im fucking listening to music so my grammar may not be great!)  So I never thought for a second we had a chance to win Super Bowl XL until we finally beat the Denver Broncos in the 06 AFC Title Game.  Most of Steeler Nation is very optimistic.  Im one of the most important fans because what I do is point out every bad scenario that can happen, so everyone else can relax and just enjoy themselves.  I basically take one for the team.

With that said I do often pick the Steelers to win as I did last week against the Chargers.  Will I do it again?

Well enough boring rambling, its time for the picks that no one will read

NFC TITLE GAME (3PM)

6. Philadelphia Eagles at 4. Arizona Cardinals

Line: Eagles by 4

The Cardinals are the one team left that can still play that no respect card.  They are 4 point underdogs at home after perhaps the most impressive performance by any team this year.  Anquan Boldin is back and healthy, and Brian Westbrook is apparently very banged up.  But Im going to trust that Donaven Mcnabb doesent throw 5 INTS to Arizona, that Andy Reid doesent have the worst gameplan in the history of football like Jon Fox did last week, and that the Eagles will return to the Super Bowl.  The strength of the Cardinals are their great recievers Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston.  Problem is Eagles have the deepest, and best corners in the league, and I see no reason why Asante Samuel, Sheldon Brown, and Lito Sheppard cant match up on those 3 atleast somewhat effectively.  The Eagles defense is carrying them right now even without a great offense.  I think they continue doing that in a game thats probably a little lower scoring than some may think.  PA Team #1 makes the super bowl ending the Cardinals 3 game winning streak against bird teams (Seahawks, Falcons, and Panthers (assuming Panthers are a kind of Bird)).  Eagles 24 Cardinals 17

AFC Title Game (630PM)

6. Baltimore Ravens at 2. Pittsburgh Steelers

Line: Steelers by 6

by the way incase anyone who doesent read this is curious Coldplay-clocks is my song of choice for this weblong entry

The Steelers are 2-0 against the Ravens this year, but both those games were dead even, coinflip games.  Infact in both the Steelers had to pull off some serious comebacks to win them.  However, without having a bye week since week 2 you have to figure the Ravens are getting slightly worn down.  They showed some signs of fatigue against Tennessee last week, whom they were very lucky to beat because they got completely outplayed.  Joe Flacco HAS to look like a rookie sooner or letter, and what better place to do that against the NFLs best defense.  The Ravens also have some injury concerns at RB, and with Todd Heap, Samari Rolle, and Terrell Suggs.  Meanwhile the Steelers are well rested, Willie Parker looks like last years version of pro bowl Willie bc hes finally healthy.  The Steelers oline had their best game of the year last week in an impressive performance against the Chargers.  And even our return units seem to be comming around a bit.  Every sign in the world points to a PA Super Bowl with the Steelers beating the Ravens.  So drum roll please......

After a 3 year abscence Pessimistic Paul is back.  Every sign is pointing to my team just like in 2001, WHICH IS WHY I WONT PICK THE STEELERS.  I HAVE MYSELF CONVINCED THE RAVENS ARE GOING TO WIN.  Its called Karma.  My team isint supposed to win two super bowls in four years, otherwise I wouldnt appreciate them the same.  The Steelers shouldnt be able to beat a team that is equal to them 3 out of the 3 times.  Everyone and their mother is picking the Steelers, giving the Ravens the no respect card.  Dave Zeppuhar is the only person that has done well with their playoff picks this year and he had Ravens over Eagles in the Super Bowl, and Ravens over Steelers in the AFC Title game.  So I am going to go off no evidence at all, other than a terrible gut feeling that Steeler nation will be pissed, miserable, and shocked as we have to watch the worst possible super bowl scenario PHILADELPHIA V BALTIMORE.  UGHHHHH.  I HATE THE THOUGHT OF IT!  I WONT EVEN WATCH IT!!!!!

Baltimore 17 Pittsburgh 16

There ya go, theres the pessimistic ones picks.  Good to be back.  Im out. 

Divisional Round Picks

Well after last Saturday I thought I was going to have to abandon writing my picks to myself altogether.  I started out a terrible 0-2 against both the spread and outright picks.  But yay for Sunday, when I totally redeemed myself!!!!  Now at 2-2 I can head into the best weekend in football, ready to increase my record to atleast 5-3!  But Im not going to take as long this time around, so onto the picks that no one will read.

4. Arizona at 2. Carolina

Line: Carolina by 10

I really should have thought more about last weeks game with Arizona and Atlanta.  I mean it was a perfect matchup for Arizona.  The home crowd made a huge difference in firing them up to be able to stop Michael Turner.  Matt Ryan finally looked like a rookie as it was his first post season game.  Anquan Boldin made a bit of a fluky play then got hurt.  And Larry Fitzgerald looked like the best WR in football.  This week will be different.  Arizona is on the road, and this matchup is just so much worse.  DeAngelo Williams should gash the Arizona defense for a buck fifty, and Steve Smith will make a few big plays on the weak defense.  Arizona is a very risky defense.  They make some big plays, and give up a lot of big plays.  Carolina is a big play offense.  If Arizona guesses wrong just a few times, Carolina should have no problem pulling this out.

Pick: Carolina 38 Arizona 20

6. Baltimore at 1. Tennessee

Line: Tennessee by 3

I was saying all year Baltimore was the least talked about elite team I had seen in awhile.  They seriously have everything you need to win a super bowl.  Now people have finally realized it after they thrashed a much overmatched Miami team by 18 (exactly how much I said Miami would lose by).  However, I expect this week to be different.  Now that people have finally realized how good Baltimore is, they seem to forget the Titans were the best team in the AFC for most of the year.  Miami is NOT Tennessee, not even close.  The Tennessee offensive line is tremendous and should hold its own against the Ravens front 7.  Ohhhhhh and this will finally be the week Joe Flacco looks like a rookie QB.  I love Flacco, but it happens to all the greatest rookie QBs eventually in the playoffs, i.e. Marino, Roethlisberger, Ryan.  Flacco had some of the greatest pass protection I had seen in a playoff game last week, and if you think hes getting anything close to that against Head Stomping Haynesworth and the Boys, ur nuts.  This game will NOT be as close as the experts think.

Ps: As long as Kerry Collins DOES NOT THROW TO ED REED!

Pick: Tennessee 20 Baltimore 10

6. Philadelphia at 1. NY Giants

Line: Gmen by 4

I have just gotten this feeling that the New York Giants who seemed to have peaked midway through the year have since switched it into cruise control until the playoffs began.  I think they are just waiting to unleash that same team that looked like the clear team to beat earlier in the year.  A couple problems stand in the way.  #1 The Eagles have a really good defense, like 4th best in the league.  #2 The Philey Eagles seem to play much better as underdogs than they do as favorites in big games.  #3 Mcnabb looked really good last week, could this finally be the year the Eagles break through?  #4 Dont underestimate the loss of Plaxico Burress, he drove the Eagles defense nuts.  Now the Eagles can stack the box to stop Jacobs, and play the Giants wideouts man to man with their outstanding corners.  I look for this to be the best played game of the playoffs so far by both teams.  I guess I have to pick a winner, and im still a little sketchy on a team that cant run between the tackles in the playoffs.

Pick: Giants 24 Eagles 21

4. San Diego at 2. Pittsburgh

Line: Pittsburgh by 6

Ugh I dont quite understand why the Steelers are such big favorites when they have such a poor offense.  Like I can tell you with high confidence right now that the Steelers are not going to score many points on the Chargers.  Im also scared to death of how Ben is going to play comming off a concussion, im not so sure Leftwich isint the better option for this game.  I can also tell you the Chargers high powered offense will not do shit on the Steelers D, bc well the Steelers d is ridiculous.  The Steelers defense is going to have to carry the poor offense through the playoffs, and I think it does for this game.  The Chargers o-line will not be able to control the Steelers front 7.  And it would be a bad idea for LT to play, he would get slaughtered by this steelers run D.  Sproles is the only offensive players that slightly scares me.  Although Gates v Polamalu will be an interesting matchup to watch.  DPOY James Harrison will have a big game.  Steelers will win, not by 6.

PS: Dont underestimate the impact of Paul Welch being at this game.  Especially sitting next to Bill Cowher!!!!

Pittsburgh 17 San Diego 13

Well thats all folks, im out

Im baaaack

Good news on the me front, my back is getting better with each passing day and have been able to return to the ever addicting activity of lifting.  Of course that means my whole mental state is awesome again.  Do need to find a job, HP just aint cutting it with a 4 year degree, however the economy has made it awfully difficult, and I havent had much luck so far.  My efforts will continue to strengthen and if nothing turns up by maybe June, I may consider going back and getting my masters degree.  But we cross that bridge when we get there. 

So with very limited hours I have been working, and no school, I have been absolutely loving life even though Im not content in my current state.  I have opted to just pretty much have fun and do what I want all the time, which is sweeeeet.

Anyways the viewers at home really need to ask themselves why would Paul Welch be posting?  He never does.  Well as most people with a TV know the NFL regular season has ended and it is time for me to bless the rest of the universe with my NFL Playoff Predictions.  I will be back on most likely after each week to pick the following weeks games, and report on how Ive done.  However I suppose its possible that if the Steelers lose in the 2nd round I may just lose interest and give up on doing this altogether.  With that said here are my wild card picks.

Wild Card Predictions

5. Indianapolis at 4. San Diego

Im not completely sold on San Diego's turnaround just yet because their wins have come over Oakland, and 3 teams that played their worst football of the year at the end: Denver, Tampa Bay, and the Jets.  Plus their an 8-8 team and as a side note it just makes no sense how they get into the playoffs over an 11-5 NE team.  Mr. Goodell needs to make a rule change on that where division winners must win atleast 9 games to make it in.  Now a team that I am sold on is Indianapolis.  They have been there before, and with Tom Brady hurt, they have the best player in the NFL remaining in Peyton Manning.  Im not sold on Indys defense even if they do have Bob Sanders, but in the year 2008 there are no dominating teams like the 2007 Patriots, so therefore you can have a major flaw I believe and still win the Super Bowl.  On the Chargers side LT and Gates both arent the players they were a few years ago, and I still passionately believe Norv Turner is one of the worst head coaches in the league.  Im picking the Colts because of my new found faith in Peyton Manning.  Indianapolis 31 San Diego 27

6. Baltimore at 3. Miami

The Dolphins have been a hell of a story, and they are truly a legit, quality football team.  A record of 11-5 would support my statement.  However, from about Week 4 of this NFL season I have considered the Ravens to be the absolute most underrated team in the league.  Their defense is dominant, and in most years would be the best in the league.  Flacco can play, and Harbough I definately think can coach.  In a wild and crazy year I think this team is more than capable of winning the Super Bowl.  And earlier in the year they handled Miami pretty easily in Florida.  I think you see a similiar result this time around, and Miamis great storybook season comes to an end. Sorry Peezie.  Baltimore 31 Miami 13

5. Atlanta at 4. Arizona

This is clearly the worst matchup of the first round.  Its two nice stories, but also think its the two worst teams that made the playoffs.  Im picking Atlanta because they showed me more this year by making the playoffs in a very tough division.  A team as flawed as the Cardinals doesent make the playoffs too often.  I dont trust anything on that team except for their passing game, and their freaky wideouts.  I think Atlanta controls this game behind Michael Turner and wins.  Atlanta 34 Arizona 27

6. Philadelphia at 3. Minneosota

Philadelphia is a hot team that seems to be a lot of peoples hot pick for the playoffs.  While the play of Mcnabb has gotten a lot better the Eagles really dont have all that good of an offense this year.  I am completely sold though they have a boarderline top 5 defense in a year in which the league has had many dominate defenses.  The Eagles are clearly the better team in this matchup, especially with Pat Williams being out for the Vikings.  I think this game stays a little bit closer than most people think because of homefield, and the fact that Adrian Peterson is the best RB in football.  If the Viks are to win he needs to take over the game, and Tarvaris Jackson needs to avoid being himself.  I trust the Eagles defense will force him into a few mistakes and Mcnabb and Westbrook will make enough plays for the Eagles to move on.  Philadelphia 20 Minneosota 17

Picking the rest of the matchups, just for fun

*Note these picks are subject to change based on what happens in the wild card round

Divisional Playoffs

Tennessee over Baltimore

Indianapolis over Pittsburgh

NY Giants over Philadelphia

Carolina over Atlanta ........  blowout

Conference Finals

Indianapolis over Tennessee

Carolina over NY Giants

Opening Super Bowl XLIII Pick

Carolina over Indianapolis

Again this is subject to change.  But as of now I think Carolina is the least flawed team.  They have the best running game I have seen in a few years, and DeAngelo Williams is onnnnn fire.  They have a talented defense that I think will be motivated.  They have the best WR in football in Steve Smith (yes probably even better than Randy Moss anymore).  They have a very good head coach, and O-line thats playing really well.  A big game tested and proven winner and leader in QB Jack Delhomme.  To me they are the least flawed team.  Which in a year of no dominant teams I think they are the most dominant.

And im really picking them because every other contending team has flaws that I dont think can be overcome.  Let me go over those real quick before bed.

NY Giants - Played their worst football at the end of the year.  And since they lost Plaxico teams have been able to focus more on the running game, and that offense just isint as good.  Its incredibly tough to win in back to back years, I dont think they do it.

Philadelphia - McNabb and Andy Reid have had great careers, but still have not proven they can handle big game pressure.  This is not the best team the Eagles have had, and I just dont trust their style of offense to win them a super bowl

Tennessee - They are inexperienced and its the first time this core group has been really good.  And its rare you win a super bowl in your first year as a breakout team.  Also I thought Tennessee peaked about halfway through the year and played their worst football near the end.  Dont put too much stock into the regular season win over Pittsburgh, as I think Pittsburgh was thinking more about the playoffs in that game.

Pittsburgh - The defensive is all time great.  More than capable of carrying a team with even an average offense to super bowl dominance.  However, thats the problem.  This offense isint even average.  The Steelers may be the hardest team for me to figure out come this postseason.  They win ugly, their 12-4 with the toughest schedule any team has ever had since 1976.  Yet I dont think you can win a super bowl with this bad of an offensive line.  The Steelers havent had any kind of a running game all year against good defenses, and Ben quite frankly hasent had his best season.  Unless this defense scores us a touchdown a game (which is possible), I dont think the Steelers do enough on offense to win it all, even with a top 10 defense of all time.

Indianapolis - This is another really hard team to figure out like Pittsburgh.  They have the longest winning streak in the league.  And anymore I trust Peyton Manning I think as much as the Steelers D.  But still, watching their games I cant help but think that they have been very lucky to win a lot of their games.  I do think their playing their best football of the year right now, which is why I like them come playoff time.  I love their experience.  But I just dont know if anything on this team has looked that great this year other than Peyton.  Marvin is over the hill, and their defense isint Indys best.

Baltimore - Baltimore actually along with Carolina is the least flawed team in this postseason.  My concern with Baltimore is they are 0-4 against the other AFC's elite that include Pittsburgh, Indy, and Tennessee.  They have a great defense, and as good as Flacco is, rookie qbs, even the great ones struggle come playoff time.  Joe Flacco reminds me a lot of Ben Roethlisberger as a rookie.  Which is definately a good thing.  But even Big Ben had a really difficult time in his first postseason.

OK that wraps this up.  I will be back in a week to see if my predictions are on target.  Peace out and goodnight. 

OMG

I HATE NOT BEING ABLE TO LIFT!!!!!!  This is no joke fokes.  I have a pulled back, havent been able to lift in 3 weeks, and there is no end in sight.  Im seriously going nuts!!!!  I hate it.  Im attending physical therapy, and I was promised only 2 more weeks without being able to lift.

But seriously this is longest I have ever gone without attending planet fitness.  Im not allowed to run or lift any weights.  And it was manageable in the beginning.  Sure the extra time, no soreness, more energy, blah blah blah.

But as of midnight tonights, its gone.  I cant take it any longer.  Im losing all my confidence I had since I started, or more importantly my swagger!!!  I have nothing left.  It was a stress remover, not even a releaver, a stress remover!  I just want to drink alcohol, and eat pizza and ice cream now.  Ahhhhh this has to stop.

All I have worked so hard for.  With every passing day I feel more of my built up muscles transferring to fat. 

I must find an alternate solution

Tommorow I will!

That is all, get on with ur lives people.